Hurricane Forcast Update
The hurricane farcasters can be compared to betting on a hockey game after the game is over. "See we were right!"
Hurricane forecast dips again
BY KIMBERLY C. MOORE
FLORIDA TODAY
First it was nine, then it was seven and now it's five, much to the relief of people who live in coastal communities.
In the often fluid world of weather predictions, hurricane forecaster William Gray's team whittled away again at its expectations for the 2006 Atlantic storm season Friday. They're calling for a slightly below-
average year, with only five hurricanes instead of the nine originally forecast in April.
Two of the hurricanes will be intense, according the team, based at Colorado State University. It was the second time they had downgraded their forecast in a month.
In the spring, Gray's team called for 17 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin during the June through November hurricane season, with nine set to become full-fledged hurricanes.
So far this year, five storms have formed, including Tropical Storm Ernesto, which briefly became the season's first hurricane last week and was moving through the mid-Atlantic region today.
The average for the Atlantic basin is about 10 named storms, six hurricanes and two to three intense hurricanes per year.
WKMG Meteorologist Larry Mowry said it is extremely difficult to predict a precise number of storms each season.
"When I look at those predictions, whether its from NOAA or Dr. Gray, you kind of have to look at whether it's going to be above average or below," Mowry said. "I think people understand better seeing numbers, rather than, 'It's going to be above or below average.' "
Mowry said Gray and his team look at a number of different factors when making their predictions, including:
• Atlantic and Pacific sea temperatures
• Global weather patterns
• El Nino or La Nina in the Pacific
• Ocean currents
• African weather patterns
• The Saharan dust field
Captain Tom Adams, who owns the charter fishing boat The Miss Cape Canaveral, said it was great news.
"I hope they're all right," he said, noting that he lost an orchard of pecan trees on some property in Alabama during Hurricane Katrina. "I hope we don't have any."
Hurricane forecast dips again
BY KIMBERLY C. MOORE
FLORIDA TODAY
First it was nine, then it was seven and now it's five, much to the relief of people who live in coastal communities.
In the often fluid world of weather predictions, hurricane forecaster William Gray's team whittled away again at its expectations for the 2006 Atlantic storm season Friday. They're calling for a slightly below-
average year, with only five hurricanes instead of the nine originally forecast in April.
Two of the hurricanes will be intense, according the team, based at Colorado State University. It was the second time they had downgraded their forecast in a month.
In the spring, Gray's team called for 17 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin during the June through November hurricane season, with nine set to become full-fledged hurricanes.
So far this year, five storms have formed, including Tropical Storm Ernesto, which briefly became the season's first hurricane last week and was moving through the mid-Atlantic region today.
The average for the Atlantic basin is about 10 named storms, six hurricanes and two to three intense hurricanes per year.
WKMG Meteorologist Larry Mowry said it is extremely difficult to predict a precise number of storms each season.
"When I look at those predictions, whether its from NOAA or Dr. Gray, you kind of have to look at whether it's going to be above average or below," Mowry said. "I think people understand better seeing numbers, rather than, 'It's going to be above or below average.' "
Mowry said Gray and his team look at a number of different factors when making their predictions, including:
• Atlantic and Pacific sea temperatures
• Global weather patterns
• El Nino or La Nina in the Pacific
• Ocean currents
• African weather patterns
• The Saharan dust field
Captain Tom Adams, who owns the charter fishing boat The Miss Cape Canaveral, said it was great news.
"I hope they're all right," he said, noting that he lost an orchard of pecan trees on some property in Alabama during Hurricane Katrina. "I hope we don't have any."
posted by Cyril Beaton at 9:37 AM
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