Hurricane Preparedness

We're about to enter the peak of the hurricane season.

Any day now, you're going to turn on the TV and see a weather person pointing to some radar blob out in the Atlantic Ocean and making two basic meteorological points:

(1) There is no need to panic.

(2) We could all be killed.

Yes, hurricane season is an exciting time to be in Florida.

If you're new to the area, you're probably wondering what you need to
do to prepare for the possibility that "the big one"'ll hit us.

Based on our experiences, we recommend that you follow this simple
three-step hurricane preparedness plan:

STEP 1: Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for at least three days.

STEP 2: Put these supplies into your car.

STEP 3: Drive to Nebraska and remain there until Halloween.

Unfortunately, statistics show that most people will not follow this
sensible plan.

Most people will foolishly stay here in Florida.

We'll start with one of the most important hurricane preparedness
items:

HOMEOWNERS' INSURANCE:

If you own a home, you must have hurricane insurance.

Fortunately, this insurance is cheap and easy to get, as long as your
home meets two basic requirements:

(1) It is reasonably well-built, and

(2) It is located in Nebraska.

Unfortunately, if your home is located in Florida, or any other area
that might actually be hit by a hurricane, most insurance companies
would prefer not to sell you hurricane insurance, because then they
might be required to pay YOU money, and that is certainly not why they
got into the insurance business in the first place.

So you'll have to scrounge around for an insurance company, which will
charge you an annual premium roughly equal to the replacement value of
your house.

At any moment, this company can drop you like used dental floss.

Since Hurricane George, I have had an estimated 27 different
home-insurance companies.

This week, the Bob and Big Stan Insurance Company cover me, under a
policy, which states that, in addition to my premium, Bob and Big Stan
are entitled, on demand, to my kidneys.

SHUTTERS:

Your house should have hurricane shutters on all the windows, all the
doors, and -- if it's a major hurricane -- all the toilets.

There are several types of shutters, with advantages and disadvantages:

(1) Plywood shutters: The advantage is that, because you make
them yourself, they're cheap. The disadvantage is that, because you
make them yourself, they will fall off.


(2) Sheet-metal shutters: The advantage is that these work
well, once you get them all up. The disadvantage is that once you get
them all up, your hands will be useless bleeding stumps, and it will be
December.


(3) Roll-down shutters: The advantages are that they're very
easy to use,and will definitely protect your house. The disadvantage is
that you will have to sell your house to pay for them.


(4) Hurricane-proof windows: These are the newest wrinkle in
hurricane protection: They look like ordinary windows, but they can
withstand hurricane winds!

You can be sure of this, because the salesman says so. He lives in
Nebraska.

Hurricane Proofing your property: As the hurricane approaches, check
your yard for movable objects like barbecue grills, planters, patio
furniture, visiting relatives, etc.

You should, as a precaution, throw these items into your swimming pool
(if you don't have a swimming pool, you should build one immediately).

Otherwise, the hurricane winds will turn these objects into deadly
missiles.

EVACUATION ROUTE:

If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route
planned out.

(To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look at your
driver's license; if it says "Florida," you live in a low-lying area).

The purpose of having an evacuation route is to avoid being trapped in
your home when a major storm hits.

Instead, you will be trapped in a gigantic traffic jam several miles
from your home, along with two hundred thousand other evacuees. So, as
a bonus, you will not be lonely.

HURRICANE SUPPLIES:

If you don't evacuate, you will need a mess of supplies. Do not buy
them now!

Florida tradition requires that you wait until the last possible
minute, then go to the supermarket and get into vicious fights with strangers over who gets the last can of SPAM.

In addition to food and water,you will need the following supplies:

(1) 23 flashlights. At least $167 worth of batteries that turn out, when the power goes off, to be the wrong size for the flashlights.

(2) Bleach. (No, I don't know what the bleach is for. NOBODY knows what the bleach is for, but it's traditional, so get some!)

(3) 55 gallon drum of underarm deodorant. (Very important!!)

(4) A big knife that you can strap to your leg. (This will be useless in a hurricane, but it looks cool.)

(5) A large quantity of raw chicken, to placate the alligators. (Ask anybody who went through Andrew; after the hurricane, there WILL be irate alligators.)

(6) $35,000 in cash or diamonds so that, after the hurricane passes, you can buy a generator from a man with no discernible teeth.

Of course these are just basic precautions.

As the hurricane draws near, it is vitally important that you keep abreast of the situation by turning on your television and watching TV reporters in rain slickers stand right next to the ocean and tell you over and over how vitally important it is for everybody to stay away from the ocean.

Good luck, and remember: It's great living in Paradise!

Housing on Upswing

Hank Fishkind: Other economists wrong – housing on slow upswing

ORLANDO, Fla. – July 26, 2007 – Economist Hank Fishkind calls other economists’ dire warnings and negative news about the housing market overblown, and says that, outside of Miami’s condominium market, the state’s housing markets hit bottom months ago and are now on a slow return to normalcy.

Fishkind, speaking Tuesday on his radio talk show, pointed to recent stories released by respected economists. Last Friday, for example, Bloomberg news published a story with an ominous headline – “Miami condo glut pushes Florida’s economy to brink of recession.” It quoted Moody’s/Economy.com’s Mark Zandi who predicted Miami condo price drops as much as 30 percent and a state recession perhaps by October.

“There is no doubt that the Miami condominium market is severely overbuilt, and that there will be sharp price drops and massive defaults,” says Fishkind. “But, this is no surprise to anyone who has followed this market.” But, he adds, “It is also important to note that Florida’s housing markets, outside of Miami’s condo market, have hit bottom months ago. The closing volume for new and for existing homes has stabilized.”

Fishkind doesn’t predict a huge upswing in closings, but “they are no longer declining. Therefore, we have already seen the worst for this cycle. There is no evidence of sharp price drops anywhere in the state, and there is no reason to expect any such drops outside of Miami condos. Population growth is holding up well as the state continues to attract large volumes of retirees and working families looking for jobs.”

Fishkind says that rising gas prices could impact consumer spending more than expected, but he calls that a nationwide problem, one that “Florida will ride out … better than most other places.”

Source: WMFE Radio News, 90.7 FM/Fishkind & Associates Inc.

© 2007 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

SPRING 2007 – THESE ARE THE BEST OF TIMES

SPRING 2007 – THESE ARE THE BEST OF TIMES
Markets are down. Regulatory agencies are breathing down the realty industry’s neck. Internet usage continues to grow and new entrants appear virtually every day.

Just another day at the office.

As we celebrate our twentieth year, it is worth noting that we have had environments like this before. Sales fell by 50 percent from 1979 to 1982. Home sales did not return to 1979 levels until 1996 – 17 years of a slump.
Home sales fell over 12 percent from 1987 to 1993, a nearly six year slump. During the earlier period, the fears were of the entry of large corporate entities into residential brokerage. The leadership of one national firm thought the greatest threats were Merrill Lynch and Sears. Turned out what traditional firms needed to fear was the 100 percent commission concept.
During the latter pull back, in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, the fears were foreclosures, the RTC, rising interest rates and housing regulation. It turned out that all were just abnormal, short term market anomalies. Most receded into history when the market turned upward.
What to do now? First, focus on those things that affect your ability to prosper, now. While the national MLS proposed by NAR will be critical in the years ahead, it won’t matter much if brokerage leaders don’t figure out how to make a profit now. Regulatory changes may make it more challenging to do business, but leaders will find a way to deal with any changes thrown their way. After all, what is an entrepreneur but someone who finds the path around challenges thrown up by technological, regulatory and other changes?
As you can read elsewhere in this month’s REAL Trends, the market won’t likely return to its prior levels for several years. Frankly, while we believe a 6-6.3 million existing-home rate is plausible over the next ten years, we do not see any evidence that the seven million homes sales level that we saw in 2004 - 2005 is reachable for a prolonged period. This is the market and it will likely remain as such for 2-3 years. Don’t count on a sustained increase.
If it does come back significantly, bullish.
Your profits will soar. It just doesn’t appear to be in the cards. After each prior downturn, there was significant consolidation. Larger firms and those that were more adept at getting costs scaled to the business level existing at that time prospered mightily. Those that didn’t expired. During the 1988–1993 downturn, seven of the largest 25 in the country were taken over on the cheap or went out of business. Size won’t protect anyone from this market.
Apollo didn’t purchase Realogy based on wishful thinking, but rather on the potential to capitalize on consolidation in weak markets. It expects to win coming out of this downturn. There will be others, including many incumbents, who will do likewise. But to get there, costs must be brought down to the level of the business existent at this time. Counting on a short term market move to bail out operating losses is not a winning strategy.
The change in the market has been breathtaking in its suddenness and without normal cause. No rising interest rates, no rise in unemployment. What it does provide is the room to make far reaching, radical changes in your business. We read every day now about sales professionals doing this with their own business. This is one great opportunity to get tough on costs and inefficiencies. We recommend that you take the plunge.

Short Sales Basics

How to Succeed at Short Sales

Unfortunately, short sales are a reality for home owners who owe more than their property is worth. If you have patience, persistence, and a knack for problem-solving, this niche could be for you.

BY MARIWYN EVANS

You’re so happy you got the listing — at least until the sellers inform you the price you’re suggesting based on your careful CMA just isn’t enough. Why? They owe more than that on their mortgage and home equity loans. Welcome to the world of short sales.

Flat or home prices, home-equity credit lines, 100-percent financing that sucked out equity, and spiking interest rates on adjustable mortgages are converging to create a regrettable, but expanding, niche for real estate practitioners: the short sale.

To help you gain a better understanding of short sales and what it takes to specialize in this growing area, we took a look at some of the most common questions on this topic that you and your customers likely will face today. Armed with this information, you can decide whether short sales are an avenue worth exploring for your business.

What is a short sale?

A short sale occurs when the net proceeds from the sale of a home are not enough to cover the sellers’ mortgage obligations and closing costs, such as property taxes, transfer taxes, and the real estate practitioner’s commission. The seller is unwilling or unable to cover the difference.

Some — although by no means all — short sellers may also be in default on their mortgage loans and be headed for foreclosure. However, home owners who bought at the top of the market or who took out large amounts of equity with a refinance and who now need to sell because of divorce or job transfer may also find themselves upside down, owing more than the home is currently worth when closing costs are factored in.

Tip: Losing your home can be very emotional and most people don’t want to face up to the reality until foreclosure sets in. "You have to have to have a very soft sell approach, but still keep sellers focused on getting forms and paperwork complete," says Sheryl Thomson, associate broker, Exit Island and Beach Realty, Merritt Island, Fla.

Other sellers simply don’t understand that if they have assets, such as stocks or a high-salaried job, a lender is not going to let them just walk away from a short sale without signing a note to repay what they owe, says Steve White, broker with Keller Williams VIP Properties, Santa Clarita, Calif.

How do I know it’s short?

A CMA will be your first indicator, but you also need to ask the seller what their outstanding debt is and calculate the cost associated with a sale — from transfer taxes to your commission. This will give you an estimate of the net proceeds that will be realized, often called the net sheet. This information can then be entered into a HUD-1 Settlement Statement to calculate out the final, negative result at closing. Some lenders also have their own forms.

Check with the title company and the lender to get exact figures on closing costs and loan balances and to find out what procedures they have in place. If they can afford it, sellers should also consider getting a home inspection to determine what repairs are needed on a home and how this might affect its value, says White.

Tip: Get the seller to send a brief letter to all mortgage holders, giving them permission to speak with you. Otherwise, privacy laws will prevent them from talking to you about the loans, says Larry Hollingsworth, associate with HomeCity Realty, Dallas/Frisco, Texas, and a short-sale course instructor. It’s also critical to build a relationship with the seller’s lender. Once you have credibility, the entire process becomes easier, he says.

Who do I and the seller need to talk to about the problem?

If there are a first and second mortgage or a home equity line of credit, you may have to talk to more than one lender to get approval for a short sale. In addition, you may also need approval from the entity that holds the pool of loans if the mortgage has been securitized.

"The presence of two lenders makes a short sale more complicated since it’s often the lender holding the second, or junior, mortgage that has to absorb most of the loss," says White, who with Gina Covello, e-Pro®, broker associate at Keller Williams Realty, Studio City, Calif., teaches a course called “The Anatomy of the Short Sale.”

Opinions differ, but most experts suggest that you let the lender involved know as soon as possible of the potential short sale. Others say you should wait until you have an offer because you’ll get no action until then. “Without a viable purchase offer, your deal won’t be considered by mortgagees,” says Margot Cole-Murphy, broker with RE/MAX Equity Group, Portland, Ore.

Tip: Be sure you contact the bank’s loss mitigation department, which will be the group to decide whether to accept a short sale, rather than the collection or customer service department, which is only interested in recouping past due loan payments. "Finding the decision maker is often one of the biggest initial challenges in a short sales," says Thomson.

What information will the bank need to decide whether to accept a short sale?

The sellers’ submission package should include W-2 forms from employers (or a letter explaining the seller is unemployed), bank statements, two years of tax returns, and other financial documents outlining income and debt obligations. The bank will also need comps or a broker’s price opinion showing your estimate of value.

In addition, the sellers should submit a “hardship letter,” explaining the circumstances that make it impossible for them to pay the full amount of the loan. The seller needs to be able to show true financial hardship. Someone with the assets or the income to pay is unlikely to be considered, say most interviewees.

Tip: In preparing the package, be careful about discrepancies between the seller’s income and the income used to obtain the loan, cautions Lance Churchill, an attorney and instructor on short sales and REOs with FrontLine Seminars. A big gap may indicate mortgage fraud, unless employment circumstances have drastically changed.

What are the options besides a short sale?

Thanks to programs such as those proposed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to assist subprime borrowers, many lenders are more willing to offer loan modification options. This option can extend the term of the loan, add on delinquent payments to the loan principal, and/or reduce the interest rate to make the loan more manageable for the home owner.

Another option is a repayment plan that requires home owners to increase their monthly payments until the loan is current, says Loni Parmelly, a real estate practitioner and consultant who specializes in short sales. Parmelly also is author of Success in Short Sales (2004), a book she sells on her Web site. It may be possible to refinance an adjustable rate loan with a Federal Housing Authority or conventional fixed loan. Note that lenders will not postpone a foreclosure just because a property is listed, although they may postpone if you have a reasonable offer in the works.

Tip: The ideal candidate for a short sale is still making loan payments and has a credit rating worth preserving. Otherwise, it may not be worth going through the complicated process, says Steve Pierce, broker and operating principal of Keller Williams Benchmark Properties, Fremont, Calif.

How should I price a short sale property?

In general, most short sale experts say to price the property at or near fair market value, although a few will begin with the total payoff amount owned by the seller. How frequently prices are dropped will depend in part on whether the property is in preforeclosure. Most banks have a formula for what percentage under market value they will accept, say interviewees. Figures cited vary from 8 percent under to almost 20 percent under.

"I always price the property 10 percent lower than comparable to peak buyer interest and initiate buyer activity," says Cole-Murphy, who’s also founder and curriculum developer for Real Estate Pro Guides, a line of educational books for practitioners. However, it’s important for buyers to understand that the bank will not give away the property, she says.

Tip: Most lenders will want to get a broker’s price opinion or even an appraisal to see what the property is worth before you and seller set a list price. One way to help ensure that the bank’s estimate of value is realistic is to offer comps of recent sales — both traditional and REO, says Churchill, who is also the author of The Foreclosure Specialist: A Real Estate Agent’s Complete Guide on Working in the Foreclosure Market (Valco Press, 2007).

“Practitioners who do BPOs are rated in part on how close their estimates are to the final sale price, so they usually welcome information on legitimate comps,” he says.

What and how should I disclose about the short-sale property to prospective buyers?

Opinions vary on this topic, although most experts favor disclosing that a property is a short sale in the comments section of the MLS listing. Others suggest waiting to disclose the need for lender approval of the sale until a buyer is ready to make an offer. Debra Allen, ABR®, e-Pro®, with Prudential Arizona Properties, Gilbert, Ariz., uses a disclosure form prepared by her brokerage just for short sales. She also had a special sign rider for the yard sign made indicating a property is a short sale.

Tip: Watch out for unethical investors who will try to convice an owner facing foreclosure to sign a quit-claim deed for the property, and then lease the property, warns Jim Cacioppo, broker/owner of Grand Realty Group. Grayslake, Ill. In such cases, the former owners will still be liable for the mortgage payments, even though they no longer own the house.

How long does it take to complete a short sale?

Although response times vary from lender to lender, it can take two weeks or as long as 60 days to receive an approval of a short sale from a lender. That’s why it’s critical that buyers and their representative understand and accept that time frame before they make an offer.

An addendum to the California Association of REALTORS® purchase contract includes a provision allowing either party to cancel a short-sale contract within a set period if the seller hasn’t gotten the deal approved, says White. Properties with securitized loans (which are the majority these days) may require a longer time to get an approval of a short sale because of the possible need for approval from the entity holding the pool of securities, says Churchill.

Tip: Keep in mind that the purchase contract on a short-sale property is a legally binding agreement once the earnest money has been deposited. Without language in the contract stating that the lenders must approve the offer and release all liens on the property, the seller may face a legal problem for failing to execute the contract if the short sale is not approved, says Hollingsworth.

What can the seller and I do to make a short sale more attractive to a lender?

Getting a lender to approve a short sale is primarily a question of economics. You have to provide hard numbers to show that the amount of money a bank will realize on the short sale is better than the amount it may recoup from foreclosing on the property and selling the property as an REO, says Todd Ruckle, ABR, RE/MAX Associates Inc., Newark, Del.

A 2002 study by Craig Focardi of the Tower Group estimated that the entire cost of a foreclosure was $58,759 and took 18 months. Other factors that can influence a bank’s decision include the liability risk it assumes by owning the property after foreclosures, the money tied up during the holding period for a foreclosure and REO resale, additional costs associated with an REO such as attorneys’ fees, and the additional reserves it will need if REOs rise in the bank’s portfolio.

Tip: A buyer that is willing to close in 30 days and who can make a substantial down payment may make the deal more attractive than a buyer who wants 95 percent financing, notes Michael Termine, GRI, CRB, associate broker, Prudential Rand Realty, New York City. All buyers should be preapproved for a mortgage before submitting the offer.

However, to avoid unnecessary costs, buyers should wait on having a home inspection and an appraisal for the loan until after the bank has accepted the short sale proposition, say Cole-Murphy. Genuine hardship, such as a lost job or high medical bills from an illness may also have an influence, says Covello.

What are the seller’s options if a short sale is rejected by the lender?

There are a variety of reasons a bank will reject a short sale — from too low a price to too many files on the loss mitigator’s desk. You can look for another buyer or even try resubmitting the same contract. "Banks don’t want to take properties back in foreclosure, so they are going to do everything they can to make it work," says Pierce. You also need to prepare your seller in advance for the possibility of foreclosure if a short sale fails, says Parmelly.

Tip: A short sale might be rejected if the loan is less than a year old. In such cases, the servicer that’s bought the loan can often require the original lender to buy it back, says Hollingsworth.

What financial or credit liabilities will a seller have as a result of a short sale?

Many lenders ask sellers to sign a promissory note for all or part of the difference between the proceeds of the short sale and the debt obligation as a condition to a short sale. In such cases, the note gives lenders the right to sue a seller and attach other assets if the note is not paid when due.

It’s particularly important to understand this distinction if you work in states such as California that have a nonrecourse mortgage, says Churchill. In such states, the lender cannot pursue a deficiency judgment against a seller for any deficiencies after a property is foreclosed. Because of this distinction, sellers who are already in default on a mortgage and do not have the resources to pay off a separate promissory note after a short sale might be better off letting the lender foreclose, he says. If you are working in a state in which mortgage loans are nonrecourse, be sure and alert your seller-clients to this distinction.

Tip: Having a portion of a loan forgiven may have an adverse affect on the seller’s credit. Encourage your client to try and sign a lease on an apartment before credit is further damaged, suggests Roberta Murphy, an associate broker with Windermere Exclusive Properties, San Diego.

What tax liabilities will a seller have as a result of a short sale?

One often overlooked aspect of short sales is that a seller must count any amount forgiven by the lender as income and pay taxes on that income, even if no actual money was received. The IRS requires lenders to submit a Form 1099 stating the forgiven amount. Sellers who meet the Internal Revenue Service definition of insolvency (either in bankruptcy or with debts exceeding assets) will not have to pay taxes on the forgiven amount.

Tip: The U.S. House of Representatives has introduced the Mortgage Cancellation Tax Relief Act (H.R. 1876), which would eliminate taxes on any debt forgiven on a principal residence through either short sale or foreclosure. The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® has been working to support this bill.

What compensation will I receive as the real estate salesperson or broker in a short sale?

Banks are going to want you to discount your commission. "It’s the first place they’ll look to save on closing costs," says Ruckle. Rates offered can vary, but are typically 1 percent to 2 percent below averages in the market, say interviewees. However, says Hollingsworth, more lenders now seem willing to pay a full commission on sales.

Tip: Instead of stating a specific percentage of compensation for buyers’ representatives when posting the listing in the MLS, offer a split (50/50, 70/30, etc.), suggests White. In this way, if the lender pressures for a lower commission, you can divide the fee, rather than give a stated percentage to the buyer’s representative. Many MLSs also require that you disclose a short sale in your listing.

Where can I find clients if I’m interested in specializing in short sales?

Word of mouth remains the biggest source of new business, experts say, but you can also promote your services to individuals attending credit counseling classes (now required prior to filing bankruptcy), to people who receive state notices of loan defaults, and to home owners named on lists of ARMs that will be resetting in the next few months. To find buyer clients, creativity is a plus. For example, Thomson is developing a monthly “Short Sale Hot Sheet” she e-mails to investors.

Tip: FSBOs are another good source since many upside-down sellers think they can’t afford to pay a commission and so try to sell on their own. Many don’t realize that in a short sale, the lender pays the broker’s commissions, says Churchill.

Are short sales for me?

With many more adjustable rate mortgages ready to reset to higher loan amounts in the next couple of years, short sales represent a growing sector of the market. However, because sales are time consuming, they aren’t for everyone. "I always say that if you’re going to succeed in short sales, you need the 3 Ps — patience, persistence, and problem solving," says Cacioppo.

Brevard County By the Numbers 2007

March 2007 April 2007
Total for sale 10865 10749
New Listings 3879 2034
Price Change 4655 3037
Withdrawn 1597 953
Expired 1669 920
Closed 850 637
Pending 491 284
Contingent 826 558

This information was provided by the Space Coast Association of Realtors in Brevard County Florida.
You may find this information useful in determining the best time to buy or sell a property.

Slump Doesn't Yield Expected Bargains

Slump Doesn't Yield Expected Bargains
The housing slowdown isn’t giving buyers the big bargains that they might have hoped, and where there are discounts, buyers aren’t leaping to grab them, says Karl E. Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College, who specializes in real estate.

Case says the most recent survey he and a colleague conducted among home buyers revealed growing pessimism about buying in a down market.

“They’re scared they’re going to buy something very expensive that’s going to fall in value,” he says. Sellers, meanwhile, are being “stubborn. They seem to be holding out so far.”

The result: “People are staring each other down.”

Case described home prices as having “downward stickiness,” meaning they don’t fall nearly as much as they rise during the strong periods.

In previous down periods, Case points out, the economy has been in a general slump. This time, in most parts of the country, the economy is growing and adding jobs.

Case concludes the housing market is in “that flat period, of four to six quarters, where prices don’t plummet. They hold on.”

Source: The Boston Globe, Andrew Caffrey (11/26/06)

Can't they just admit they were wrong!

Can't wait for the December release of the predictions! Pure S.W.A.G. (Scientific Wild Assed Guess)

'Factors' blew away hurricane predictions


BY JIM WAYMER
FLORIDA TODAY
William Gray blames his bum forecast on El Nino and African dust.
His team at Colorado State University put a 52-page tome online Friday, explaining month-by-month where they went wrong with their seasonal hurricane outlook.
"Nobody's forecast worked out very well," said Phil Klotzbach, who heads Gray's team.
At the season's onset, they predicted 17 named storms, nine of them hurricanes and five of those at least Category 3 -- storms featuring winds of at least 111 mph. Just nine named storms formed, five of them hurricanes and only two with winds of at least 111 mph.
Warm, dry dusty air over Africa also kept storms from forming.
"If you can still see the dust you have a very stable layer, and stable air masses aren't very conducive to thunderstorm development," Klotzbach said.
This year's slightly-below-average season also bucked loftier predictions by forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In August, they called for 12 to 15 named storms, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes, and three or four of those at least Category 3. They pointed to warm waters in the Atlantic Ocean and a 20- to 30-year cycle of increased hurricane activity that began in 1995 as support.
The Gray team plans to release on Dec. 8 its first prediction for the 2007 hurricane season.